Scenario Analysis

Scenario Analysis: Epidemiological Priorities

In this step, you will identify the epidemiological priorities for your scenario, taking into consideration your overall objective as well as specific country’s context. You may want to use what you learned in the situation analysis to identify the key epidemiological priorities for your country context. For example, if diarrhea and pneumonia are contributing to a large portion of under-five deaths, you may want to focus your scenario analyses on these causes.

Causes of mortality are broken down into categories as listed at the top:

  • Neonatal causes
  • Post neonatal & child mortality causes
  • Child nutrition
  • Maternal mortality

EQUIST allows you to analyse simultaneously the absolute burden of disease (the disease-specific mortality rate for your targeted population), as well as the relative “excess” mortality in your group (the gap in relative disease burden between your targeted population the least disadvantaged group). Gaps in mortality rate/ ratio between the target population and least disadvantaged population can be analysed based on the chart data. Causes with a larger difference between the least and most disadvantaged populations may be considered as priority. For example:

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The three donuts :

Donut_chart_1 Donut_chart_2 Donut_chart_3

 

represent “Proportion of Total burden”, “Proportion covered by target population” and “Proportion covered within target population for priority diseases” respectively.

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