Scenario Analysis

Scenario Analysis: Impact & Cost

The last step in the bottleneck, causes & strategies analysis is to estimate the LiSt impact. In this exercise, EQUIST takes the change in effective coverage of each intervention resulting from the scenario you have built, and runs it through LiST to estimate the lives that could have been averted. The results from this analysis determine the impact & costs of the scenario you have developed.

Generating LiST Impact

First, click on “estimating LiST impact”. It will take a few minutes for EQUIST to run the analysis. EQUIST will take a few minutes to conduct the following steps:

  1. LiST input file is generated
  2. LiST run executed
  3. LiST output processed
  4. LiST chart generate

Impact & Cost

Based on LiST results, EQUIST will generate charts showing the deaths which could have been averted based upon the scenario analysis conducted above.

In the visualization the expected impact of your specific scenario will be compared against:

  1. The operational frontier for the population groups selected: amenable deaths if the deprived population coverage value(s) was equal to the best performing countries
  2. The equity frontier: amenable deaths if the deprived population coverage value(s) was equal to the non-deprived population coverage value(s)

This will be compared to the deaths averted in scenario: the deaths averted based upon the scenario you have built for your target population. As evidenced in the example below, the deaths averted in the scenario are approximately 500.

  1. The last graph to the right shows how many lives could have been saved if the scenario in context was applied in reality. In the example below, 90 lives could have been saved for $1 million.

 

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